BAD ENOUGH HE WON, YOU MEAN HIS VICTORY HAS CONSEQUENCES?:

Boris Johnson's Tory revolution plan revealed: Boris johnson will launch a Conservative revolution in London this week, introducing a series of reforms as a test-bed for a future Tory government. (Melissa Kite and Patrick Hennessy, 04/05/2008, Daily Telegraph)

The new Mayor, who defeated Labour's Ken Livingstone, will within days pour more police on to the capital's crime-hit streets, and plans to introduce hand-held weapon scanners and knife-detecting "arches" at Tube and railway stations.

He will also move to slash immediately wasteful spending and bureaucracy and order a review of the capital's controversial congestion charge.

The swift initiatives are designed to make London a powerhouse of Tory ideas, with Mr Johnson's administration – the first chance the Tories have had to wield real political power for 16 years – used by David Cameron and his team as the proving ground for a move into government.

Powerful potential of this pro-Tory tide: All the signs suggest David Cameron is on course for Downing Street (John Curtice, 5/04/08, Daily Telegraph)

In London, Boris Johnson's victory was not simply a personal one. There was also a swing to the Tories in the London Assembly. While that swing was not as dramatic as in the rest of the country, the resulting nine-point Tory lead over Labour more than matched the party's performance in the capital in the 1992 general election. Once again the Conservatives were evidently doing well enough to suggest they were on a potentially election-winning track.

There was also the added satisfaction for the Tories that the "yellow peril" appears to be in abeyance. Outside London the Liberal Democrat vote slipped for the fourth year in a row. With 25 per cent of the equivalent national vote, the party recorded its weakest local election performance for a decade.

Fortunately for Nick Clegg, his party's slide was masked by a modest net gain of 31 seats and Labour's even more dismal performance. But in London, where there was no such camouflage, the party's vote was down on 2004 by between five and six points in both the mayoral race and the assembly contests.

The potential consequences of the pro-Tory tide are dramatic. If the voting pattern were repeated in a general election, the Commons would be changed on a scale not seen since Tony Blair's historic victory in 1997. Even taking into account that the Tories are failing to make much headway in Scotland, last week's outcome would be sufficient to see David Cameron ensconced in Downing Street with a hefty majority. With just 183 seats, Labour would have even fewer MPs than in 1983.

MORE:
Labour ministers who could lose seats: David Cameron is on course to lead the Conservatives to victory at the next general election with a majority of 116, according to an analysis for The Sunday Telegraph of last week’s local results. (Daily Telegraph, 5/04/08)
Cabinet 'plots against Brown' (Jenny Percival, 5/04/08, Scotland on Sunday)

CABINET ministers are privately plotting to replace Gordon Brown as Labour leader, according to a senior Labour MP who has slammed the troubled Premier as a "moody, disloyal personality".

Labour MP Graham Stringer, a former Cabinet Office minister, told Scotland on Sunday that his senior parliamentary colleagues were preparing the ground for a new leader amid growing panic that Labour is facing certain defeat following the disastrous May Day local elections last week.

Maverick mayor Johnson vows to tackle crime (Jenny Percival, 04 May 2008, Scotland on Sunday)
Family of influence behind Boris Johnson: Taking over the reins of power as London's new mayor, Boris Johnson can draw on the help, advice and support of a family whose members move easily in the worlds of politics, journalism and the law. (Daily Telegraph, 5/04/08)

Posted by Orrin Judd at May 3, 2008 9:51 PM