March 13, 2008
HE USED TO KNOW WHAT DAVID MAMET JUST FIGURED OUT:
CAPITALISM'S MYSTERIOUS TRIUMPH (Paul Krugman)
[N]either technological change nor globalization can explain the fact that socialist economies did not merely lag the West: they actually went into decline, and then collapse. Why couldn't they at least hold on to what they had?Posted by Orrin Judd at March 13, 2008 8:50 AMI don't think anyone really knows the answer, but let me make a conjecture: the basic problem was not technical, but moral. Communism failed as an economic system because people stopped believing in it, not the other way around.
A market system, of course, works whether people believe in it or not. You may dislike capitalism, even feel that as a system it will eventually fail, yet do your job well because your family needs the money you earn. Capitalism can run, even flourish, in a society of selfish cynics. But a non-market economy cannot. The personal incentives for workers to do their jobs well, for managers to make good decisions, are simply too weak. In the later years of the Soviet Union, workers knew that they would be paid regardless of how hard they tried; managers knew that promotions would depend more on political connections than on performance; and nobody was offered rewards large enough to justify taking unpopular positions or any sort of serious risk. (There can't have been more than a few dozen people in the Soviet Union - all of them politicians - who had the kind of lavish life style enjoyed by tens of thousands of successful entrepreneurs and executives in the United States). So why did the system ever work? Because people believed in it. I don't mean that people went singing to their jobs, praising the motherland. I do mean that they did not take as much advantage of the system as they might have (and did, in the system's later years). And I also mean that because people in authority believed in the system, they were willing to impose brutal punishments on those who did try to take advantage. (Stalin used to shoot unsuccessful generals).
We see this kind of thing all the time, in microcosm. The market does not require people to believe in it; but the centrally planned economies that live inside a market economy, known as corporations, do. Everybody knows that financial incentives alone are not enough to make a company succeed; it must also build morale, a sense of mission, which makes people work at least somewhat for the good of the company rather than think only of what is good for them. Luckily, under capitalism an individual company can fail without taking the whole society down with it - or it can be reformed without a bloody revolution.
Why did people stop believing in socialism? Part of the answer is simply the passage of time: you can't expect revolutionary fervor to last for 70 years. But perhaps also the unexpected resurgence of capitalism played a role. By the 1980s Russia's elite was all too aware that the country, instead of overtaking the capitalist nations, was slipping behind - that Russia was failing to take advantage of new technology, that if anyone was challenging the West it was the rising nations of Asia. Communism lost any claim to the mandate of history well before it actually fell apart, and perhaps that is why it fell apart.
In the end, then, capitalism triumphed because it is a system that is robust to cynicism, that assumes that each man is out for himself. For much of the past century and a half men have dreamed of something better, of an economy that drew on man's better nature. But dreams, it turns out, can't keep a system going over the long term; selfishness can.
Krugman's whole point is wrong, "people stopped believing, blah, blah" but this setenced is so true and describes our socialistic system of education in the US.
" In the later years of the Soviet Union, workers knew that they would be paid regardless of how hard they tried; managers knew that promotions would depend more on political connections than on performance; and nobody was offered rewards large enough to justify taking unpopular positions or any sort of serious risk. "
Posted by: Perry at March 13, 2008 10:35 AM"For much of the past century and a half men have dreamed of something better, of an economy that drew on man's better nature."
Problem was with the first premise - assuming that man had a better nature to begin with. Or GIGO.
Posted by: Mikey
at March 13, 2008 11:32 AM
"A market system, of course, works whether people believe in it or not. You may dislike capitalism, even feel that as a system it will eventually fail, yet do your job well because your family needs the money you earn. Capitalism can run, even flourish, in a society of selfish cynics."
This man is supposed to be a preeminent economist? These 3 sentences aren't even close to being coherent or even compatible with each other.
Posted by: b at March 13, 2008 12:02 PMFooey. There are three forces that always work to kill "socialist" or highly-centralized resource management systems, and they are synergistic with one another.
1: The center doesn't know everything. Important details apparent to the periphery never make their way up the hierarchy, which invariably excuses the lack of data as "trivialities" and makes decisions using other criteria. Because they are made on bad data, the decisions are always partly or completely wrong.
2: Markets happen anyway. A directed economy suppresses the market(s) in goods and services, but the market doesn't disappear; it simply begins trading in the attention and influence of the people charged with direction. That market is always distorted, because the goods and services it trades cannot be well-defined and the currency it is based on varies wildly and unpredictably in value.
3: Ants find the sugar. The bureaucrats charged with managing the economy have posts of great power which direct the disposition of enormous quantities of assets. This makes them irresistably attractive to people whose goals lie primarily or entirely in self-aggrandizement, whether such aggrandizement is materialistic (wealth) or the self-satisfaction of being able to exert power. Such persons exert every possible effort to attain the posts, and eventually displace anyone and everyone in the system who actually believes in the original goals and purposes. (The fact that, to do so, they must also lie through their teeth about their motives means that they are not only corrupt in terms of diverting the resources of society for their own benefit, they corrupt the entire selection process. This is very nearly a fourth destructive factor on its own.)
So even when tight central control works, it quits working before too long. When it's a single corporation, however large, that's been taken over by egotists and "efficiency experts", the failure doesn't threaten the whole society. When the whole society is managed by such people, disaster is inevitable.
Regards,
Ric
"I don't think anyone really knows the answer"
English translation: we all know the answer, but I don't like it.
For much of the past century and a half men have dreamed of something better, of an economy that drew on man's better nature. But dreams, it turns out, can't keep a system going over the long term; selfishness can.
I am still dreaming that selfish Krugman would share his ill-gotten gains with me once he wakes up to his better natured self.
Posted by: ic at March 13, 2008 2:00 PMOJ:
What's that phrase you use with seven or so F-words covering every part of speech? I need to know it, fast.
Posted by: Matt Murphy at March 13, 2008 8:16 PMOne other thing: Even as a trained economist, Krugman can't get over the kind of intellectual hubris that makes him think that he and people like him are smart enough to run everything. It's the same thing that makes him so sure that someday we'll have a real-life version of Asimov's psychohistory.
Thomas Sowell's estimate is that there were 24 million prices in the USSR that needed to be set and re-set relative to each other. I don't care how high your IQ is, if you think you're smart enough to run something like that then you ought to be locked up in an Ivy League university with the rest of your fellow yokels.
Posted by: Matt Murphy at March 13, 2008 8:38 PMI don't really know what I'm talkin bout / on
The problem with socialism as an economic paradigm isn't so much the central planning; computers would help greatly with that but rather the -dynamic- nature of a healthy market.
By example, it is highly unlikely Soviet central planners allocated resources for the Russian equivalent of Bill Gates and Steve Jobs to do their computer thing in dorm rooms and garages thereby jump starting whole industries as they did.
But even if they did, simply picking a winner is not the end of it; you have to pick a loser too like ordering the typewriter industry out of business.
The insider trading at that kind of level spells doom.
BS / off
Posted by: Perry at March 13, 2008 10:12 PMF you, you f'in f f, f!
Posted by: oj at March 13, 2008 10:28 PM