AS GOOD AS AN OCTOBER SURPRISE :

Here are two related stories from USA Today :

Officials: War plans still in flux (John Diamond, 7/30/02, USA TODAY)

Bush administration officials have told key lawmakers not to expect a U.S. attack on Iraq before the fall elections, allowing time for
Congress to debate the possibility of war. Senior administration officials gave the assurances in private conversations with senators planning a series
of hearings that begin today into a possible U.S. attack on Iraq. The officials said there would be no "October surprise" — a sudden attack before the
Nov. 5 congressional elections to remove Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.

The assurances square with Pentagon estimates that it would take until early next year to have the weapons, intelligence and forces in place to take on
Iraq's 375,000-man army. One key factor: U.S. soldiers can't fight in Iraq's summer or autumn heat wearing protective gear against chemical or
biological weapons attack.

Today's Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing is the first of several on Iraq. But the White House has decided it's too early in the
decision-making process to participate and won't send witnesses until the sessions resume after the August recess.

Iraq invasion wouldn't look like '91 Gulf War (John Diamond, Andrea Stone and Dave Moniz, 07/31/2002, USA TODAY)

As his war planners develop a strategy for invading Iraq, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has been getting a clear message from some architects of the 1991 Persian Gulf War: Don't fight the next war with Iraq the way we fought the last one.

[A] clear set of options has emerged from intensive planning by the Joint Chiefs of Staff and generals at the U.S. Central Command at MacDill Air Force Base, Fla., the military headquarters responsible for the Persian Gulf region. Many of the plans build on lessons from U.S. military actions going back to World War II. Examples:

* An attack should be swift and sudden, as in the surprise 1989 U.S. invasion of Panama that ousted President Manuel Noriega. In 1990, the USA telegraphed its intention to liberate Kuwait five months before attacks by building an international coalition and moving tons of equipment and half a million personnel to the Gulf region.

* The invasion should come from multiple directions, raising the possibility that U.S. forces may try to use neighboring Turkey in the north, Jordan in the west and Kuwait in the south.

* The invasion should rely principally on small teams of special operation forces of the type deployed recently in Afghanistan to root out the Taliban. The goal would be to decapitate Saddam's command and control structure. Key missions would involve assaulting Saddam's more than 50 fortified "palaces."

* To aid a surprise attack, invading forces would use supplies already being pre-positioned, in some cases secretly, in countries in the region. In a nod to political reality, the USA would not acknowledge help from some countries.

* U.S. forces would work to turn the 300,000-strong Iraqi regular army and the population against the Iraqi government. Some strategists think a successful quick strike could induce most of the regular army to sit out the fight or even turn on Saddam. After the war, the United States would mount a psychological operation designed to undercut any residual pro-Saddam sentiment in Iraq.

* A successful invasion would be followed by deployment of a substantial peacekeeping force, as in Bosnia. Pentagon officials are considering an occupation force of 25,000 to 50,000 troops that might stay for as long as a decade.

Now, at first blush, this seems to queer talk of an October Surprise. But consider two things. First, having Congress debate the war beginning in September is functionally the same thing as an October Surprise. That is it freezes electioneering, forces the Democrats to wear their bipartisan hats or face charges of disloyalty, and keeps Congress in washington, rather than out campaigning in their districts. Second, the anniversary of the original Kuwait invasion is coming up and Iraq, which celebrates it as a holiday. has built up its forces in the South. The Kuwaitis are as nervous as kittens. This first article would be exactly the type of disinformation you'd plant if you wanted Saddam to think he could take some risks right now because we're not ready to go. A provocation of nearly any type would give us the pretext for an attack and it would be entirely reasonable for the
administration to try to lure him into doing something suicidal.

Posted by Orrin Judd at July 31, 2002 4:10 PM