January 03, 2004
25% = PERMANENT MAJORITY:
Black Votes -- No GOP Fantasy (Jonetta Rose Barras, January 4, 2004, Washington Post)
Consider these facts: There has been a measurable rightward shift in the black electorate. In 2002 the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, a liberal think tank, asked black respondents in its national survey to identify themselves as either Democrats, independents or Republicans. Although 63 percent claimed to be Democrats, the number was down from 74 percent in 2000. The decrease occurred in nearly every age group, including among respondents 65 and older (where the drop was from 82 percent to 75 percent). There was a significant increase in those calling themselves independents, especially between the ages of 26 and 35. Respondents identifying themselves as Republicans also increased: Between ages 26 and 35, the number tripled, going from 5 percent in 2000 to 15 percent in 2002. [...]Further, the individuals whom African Americans elect from their own communities are less likely to fit the model of "old guard" civil rights leader or to hew to the far left wing of the party. Rather, the new leaders, exemplified by D.C. Mayor Anthony A. Williams and Rep. Artur Davis (D-Ala.), are centrists, advancing what some might call a cross-dressing agenda that includes conservative staples of education choice and family values. Interestingly, these individuals are not just the darlings of the younger generation; they also have attracted older African American voters.
The flexibility of the new generation of black leaders and the growing population of black independent voters has meant the development of unprecedented alliances with Republicans and conservatives. Davis, hoping to address the issue of affordable housing in his district, co-sponsored legislation with none other than Florida's Rep. Katherine Harris -- the former secretary of state whom many Democrats blame for their 2000 presidential defeat. Rep. Harold Ford Jr. (D-Tenn.) wasn't shy about joining forces with Rep. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) when advocating changes in Social Security.
This budding transformation of black America has been underreported. It does appear, however, that Republicans have been paying close attention.
Congressman Ford is low-hanging fruit, if only the GOP has sense enough to pick him. Posted by Orrin Judd at January 3, 2004 01:49 PM
I wish this were true but one is delusional if they think that black voters are going to vote Republican. It just isn't going to happen anytime soon. It will take at least three more generations for blacks to start voting Republican.
Posted by: pchuck at January 3, 2004 02:45 PMI wish this were true but one is delusional if they think that black voters are going to vote Republican. It just isn't going to happen anytime soon. It will take at least three more generations for blacks to start voting Republican.
Posted by: pchuck at January 3, 2004 02:45 PMAlthough I feel strongly about my opinion, I didn't mean to double post it. Sorry.
Posted by: pchuck at January 3, 2004 02:48 PMI think Ford might be more inclined to be the bigger fish in the smaller pond. Assuming the Dems do not collapse out of existence, he would likely be well-placed to help piece together the wreckage.
Posted by: Andrew X at January 3, 2004 03:17 PMInstead of going Republican, I would expect someone like Ford to take the lead in creating a centrist opposition party to the Republican majority. A true loyal opposition, like the Republicans were during the 1950s through 1980s, shorn of the Left-wing hate groups now dominating.
As pointed out earlier, there is something to be said for being the big fish in a small pond. A centrist loyal oppostion party is going to elect the occasional President or gain the occasional majority in Congress, and someone like Ford or Davis would then be well placed to take personal advantage of that. The real problem is that if people like Ralph Hall leave now, there may not be anything to build a centrist party from.
The mirage of the Republican Party gaining a significant foothold among black voters is one that appears with dismal regularity. The reality is that, with few exceptions, the percentage of the black vote a Republican can expect to receive is very small, and attempts to increase it have repeatedly failed.
The truth is that, despite the good hearted but inept attempts of the Republicans to attract black voters, the prevalent victimization culture foisted on the black masses by the establishment leadership has been remarkably effective.
J. C. Watts? Colin Powell? Condolezia Rice? Clarence Thomas? All "hankerchef heads" or as Harry Belafonte famously said "house niggers". The general political state of the black community remains one of profound distrust of the Republican Party, one of the greatest ironies of Amenrican political history.
Republican outreach efforts toward the "black community" are thus by and large a waste of political resources. The effort will continue because it looks good and because the Republicans have so many resources that the price is relatively small.
Posted by: Earl Sutherland at January 3, 2004 04:47 PMRaoul:
As usual, you make a lot of sense.
What is this racial characteristic that will keep blacks on the political periphery forever?
Posted by: oj at January 3, 2004 05:53 PMIt's not a racial characteristic. It's a cultural characteristic. Read McWorter (sp?)
They have to drop the victimization and anti-educationalism, and anti-intellectualism.
Posted by: ray at January 3, 2004 08:12 PMThey are.
Posted by: oj at January 3, 2004 08:18 PMRecently, a black republican group held it's first fundraiser near Bradenton, FL. It started in 2002, some black-owned papers had endorsed W. $75 a head 200 people turned out. Not bad for it's maiden voyage. There were about 23K black republicans in FLA in 2000 and they were 30% more likely to have their ballots spoiled if the voting place was run by a black dem.
If FLA goes solid for W, this could get really interesting.
Posted by: Sandy P. at January 3, 2004 09:46 PMThis is why it is important for the Republicans to put an African-American on the ticket as soon as possible. Cut to the chase. Do something dramatic, and even the media will be stunned into silence. No one is going to call Condi Rice a house nigger and get away with it - does anyone remember the ad ran against Trent Lott back in 1984, when his opponent accused Lott of using a black driver? Lott countered with the driver, sternly explaining that he was not only a driver, but a bodyguard and more. It was devastating. Rice or Watts could shatter the immature likes of Harry Belafonte in 30 or 40 seconds, if necessary.
Posted by: jim hamlen at January 3, 2004 10:57 PMI wouldn't try and guess for a minute what black voters are likely to do. It seems that they live in a world drastically different than we do. Watch what happens when Dean announces (my prediction) that he's fully in favor of slave reparations this year.
Posted by: Matt C at January 5, 2004 02:48 PM