October 05, 2003
AN ELECTION IS NOT A TREND:
California's New Trend: Big-Tent Republicans (JOHN MICKLETHWAIT and ADRIAN WOOLDRIDGE, 10/05/03, NY Times)
In the latest "Terminator" movie, Arnold Schwarzenegger plays a robot who returns from the future to save a grand old civilization from chaos. In Tuesday's California recall election Mr. Schwarzenegger stands a chance of transforming a grand old political party, not just in California but possibly on the national stage as well. That prospect exhilarates national Republican leaders, even as some acknowledge that it carries risks as well.The election goes beyond the prospect of salvaging Republican pride in Ronald Reagan's backyard. For many Republicans, a Schwarzenegger victory also carries an even more tantalizing promise with it: "rebuckling" the Republican Sun Belt, so that a revitalized libertarian Western wing balances the party's currently dominant moralistic Southern wing.
A Schwarzenegger victory would be "a political earthquake that will redefine what it means to be a Republican," said Frank Luntz, a political consultant who has advised Republicans from Newt Gingrich to Rudolph Giuliani. "People who have written the party off for being too strident on social issues will have a reason to re-examine their opinion."
It seems far more likely that Arnold would be a one-off, an overly liberal--and unsurprisingly scandalous--candidate chosen because he had the best shot of winning in a Democratic state. Where Republicans have a decent shot at winning with a conservative candidate, that's the direction they'll likely take. Of course, if Arnold's Clintonesque past were to lead to his defeat on Tuesday, unlikely but possible, there would be a justifiable backlash from the McClintock wing of the California GOP. Posted by Orrin Judd at October 5, 2003 06:15 AM
Arnold is a rogue, but he's pretty much a straight shooter, which is always the key to being respected.
And here's the thing, don't you think he'll end up being pretty much a conservative on most issues, except in a few where he has to prostrate himself due to his own flaws, i.e. "I'll be a champion of woman."
Posted by: Neil at October 5, 2003 09:57 AMCalifornia's main concerns right now are economic issues, which should keep Arnold busy enough for the next year if he's elected to render the concerns about his social liberalism, if not moot, than at least irrelevant for the near future.
However, if he is elected, I expect the California legislature and its Democratic leadership to suddenly discover women's rights concerns are the most important thing facing the state at the present time, and will try to make sexual harrassment in the workplace the focus in Sacramento, ahead of the $38 billion deficit.
Posted by: John at October 5, 2003 12:47 PMArnold's positions seem similar to the republican governors of MA, who interestingly have had a lock on the office for quite a while now. Social moderates running against the legislature may be a winning scheme in liberal states.
Posted by: Mike Earl at October 5, 2003 09:44 PMArnold's effectiveness will be determined by his willing ness to use the veto. His importance lies primarily with the next Senatorial campaign (in California)and secondarily with the Presidential campaign. The smear campaign is designed to detract from his appeal on a podium next to President Bush - not to his victory over Dimbulb. Davis is down too deep to achieve a victory - although - watch the count of absentee's. Crooked counters in LA County (remember Loretta Sanchez?) will try and swing it if it's tight.
CONTEST ENDS TOMORROW NIGHT AT 12PM (PST)
Posted by: RDB at October 5, 2003 10:34 PM